MMarket ResearchIndia

Checklist · 4 min read

Market Sizing & Forecasting Checklist: 12 Steps Before You Commission a Study

A 12-step checklist for planning a market sizing & forecasting project in India, from objectives and audience to sampling, quality control and reporting.

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Quick answer

Before commissioning market sizing & forecasting, define the decision it will inform, the audience, the cities, the sample, the method, the timeline and the budget. Then agree quality-control and reporting standards with your agency.

At a glance

Guide type
Checklist · 4 minute read
Method covered
Market Sizing & Forecasting
Research family
Strategy research
Typical timeline
4–8 weeks, depending on how much primary validation the estimate needs
Typical sample
a bottom-up build supported by 10–20 supply-side validation interviews
Written for
Project managers running the study · In-house teams doing it themselves · Reviewers signing off a vendor plan

Key takeaways

  • Start from the business decision, not the questionnaire
  • Fix the audience definition early
  • Agree QC and deliverables upfront
  • Plan how findings will be used

Reader intent

Who this guide is for

Three readers arrive here with different problems. Each should be able to act on this page without reading all of it.

  • Project managers running the study

    A working sequence for a market sizing & forecasting project, from brief through field to debrief.

  • In-house teams doing it themselves

    The quality controls an agency would apply, written so that you can apply them yourself.

  • Reviewers signing off a vendor plan

    Read it as an audit list against the proposal currently on your desk.

01

The 12-step checklist

  • Write down the business decision
  • List the information gaps
  • Define the target audience precisely
  • Choose cities and the urban/rural split
  • Set the sample size and key segments
  • Pick the method (top-down modelling, bottom-up builds, supply-side checks, scenario forecasting)
  • Agree languages and translation
  • Draft and pilot the questionnaire or guide
  • Agree quality-control checks
  • Set the timeline and milestones
  • Define deliverables and format
  • Plan the debrief and next actions

02

Why the order matters

Each step constrains the next. Changing the audience late, for example, can reset sampling, cost and timeline.

03

How Market Research India can help

Market Research India designs and runs market sizing & forecasting projects across 50 Indian cities and 30 industries. A senior research director leads every study, and our own supervised teams handle the fieldwork. You get clear recommendations, not just data tables.

Share your objective and we will send a scoped, fixed-fee proposal within 24 hours, with a recommended method, sample and timeline.

What goes wrong

Common mistakes in market sizing & forecasting

Most disappointing market sizing & forecasting studies fail for reasons that were visible in the design, not in the fieldwork. These are the ones we see most often, and what to do instead.

  • 01

    One source, multiplied

    A single published figure extended by assumptions inherits every error in the original and adds new ones. Build two independent estimates and reconcile them.

  • 02

    Confusing the total market with the reachable one

    TAM impresses investors and misleads planners. State SAM and SOM explicitly, with the constraints that separate them.

  • 03

    Assumptions nobody can trace

    Any input without a visible source is challenged once and ignored thereafter. One assumption, one line, one source.

  • 04

    Borrowed growth rates

    A CAGR copied from a published report is a guess with a decimal point. Derive growth from drivers you can observe — households, outlets, penetration, price.

  • 05

    Findings that arrive after the decision

    Research timed to land after the investment committee has met is an audit, not an input. Work back from the decision date and cut scope rather than slip.

  • 06

    Assumptions buried in the model

    A number nobody can trace is challenged once and ignored thereafter. Every assumption on its own labelled line, with its source.

Run through this before sign-off

Your checklist before you brief anyone

A working sequence for a market sizing & forecasting project. Most of it costs nothing, and it saves the two weeks a re-field would take.

  1. 1

    Build the estimate top-down and bottom-up independently, then explain the gap.

  2. 2

    Validate with manufacturers, distributors or regulators who see actual volume.

  3. 3

    Put every assumption on its own labelled line, with its source and date.

  4. 4

    Separate TAM, SAM and SOM with the constraint that creates each step.

  5. 5

    Scenario the three assumptions the answer is most sensitive to.

  6. 6

    Hand over a working model rather than a PDF, so the team can update it next quarter.

  7. 7

    Agree in writing who acts on each finding, and by when, before the debrief ends.

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Answers

Frequently asked questions

The questions buyers ask us most often before they commission market sizing & forecasting.

Can an agency help with the checklist?

Yes. A good agency will workshop these steps with you before it quotes.

Request a proposal

Talk to a market sizing & forecasting specialist.

From guide to project

Where market sizing & forecasting actually gets commissioned

If this guide has settled the method, these are the pages worth opening next: the service itself, and the markets where market sizing & forecasting is most often run for our clients.

Keep exploring

More reading on market sizing & forecasting

Grouped rather than listed, so you can find the one page you need instead of scanning a wall of links.

More on market sizing & forecasting

14

Every angle we have published on this method: what it costs, how long it takes, how large the sample should be and how to choose a partner.

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Other checklist articles

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The same checklist written for each of our other research methods, so you can compare like with like.

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Market Sizing & Forecasting city by city

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Local field teams, local languages and the sector mix each market is strongest in.

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Related research services

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Strategy methods first — these are the ones most often combined with market sizing & forecasting in a single study.

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